Victor Argo writes about the Cold War and what it means to the Middle East.

The Cold War in the Middle East meant that autocrats and dictators were allowed to govern as they pleased. These rulers were encouraged and supported by their sponsors in Washington or Moscow. Hafez al-Assad was the Soviet’s man no matter how hard he pushed his agenda in Syria. The Shah of Iran could do no wrong as long as he kept hammer and sickle out of his country. Egypt finally shifted its alliance from the USSR during the early days of the Cold War to being a United States follower under Sadat. Ultimately this led to a peace agreement with Israel.

Whoever the godfathers of their rulers were, for the people of the Middle East it meant that liberal democracies Western style never had a chance to see the light of an election day. Democracy by definition implies instability and insecurity. During Cold War times, the superpowers were not ready to accept this risk. The Middle East was too precious a region for the Americans to have it voted away to the Soviets.

This is 2014 and we are back to a Cold War of a new sort. The United States’ military budget is about to be reduced considerably and thanks to Putin’s determined actions, Russia has found a second breath. How will this new equilibrium play out in the conflict zones of the Middle East? Here is a prediction.

Victor, which is a pseudonym, holds a management position within a European ministry of defense. He uses an alias since his views are private and in no way connected with any official view of any European government. Victor is personally connected to Lebanon.